Berezin was in New Zealand recently to present to fund managers and others investment specialists. Currently he was bullish on markets and his research suggested global growth. which had been falling bottomed out earlier this year and was now starting to pick up.
The trade wars between the United States and China was a major risk and are likely to escalate before they settle down. Berezin says that both countries "want a deal" and he thought the reaction from the markets to what was going on had been a little "complacent."
He says the trade wars are more important to Wall Street than China and if they do "blow up" then stocks will go down.
However, his base case remains some sort of resolution will occur. It may not be the best but it will settle the markets down.
Like all analysts Berezin He said the deleveraging campaign that had been going on in that country, which was responsible for the slowdown in Chinese growth was largely over. He says Europe will benefit from the improving Chinese growth story. Likewise Australia and New Zealand will benefit too.
The next recession, he predicts, will be in early 2021 when inflation in the United States rises and the Federal Reserve will be too slow to react.
"The next recession will be caused by the Fed. It will get behind the curve and have to raise rates."
When that does happen it will be "difficult to find a place to hide," he says.
BCA, based in Canada, publishes, the highly-regarded The Bank Credit Analyst. Berezin has been the managing editor of the publication and now focuses on analysing global economic and financial markets trends.
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