Deteriorating growth outlook likely to keep rates on hold

With the outlook for both global and domestic growth deteriorating, economists expect Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard will leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday and financial markets have even priced in the outside chance of a cut.

Monday, October 24th 2011, 10:33AM

by Jenny Ruth

Economists are also starting to push out further their expectations of when Bollard will start raising his official cash rate (OCR) again from a record low 2.5% currently well into next year and all 12 surveyed by www.mortgagerates.co.nz expect no change on Thursday.

Peter Cavanaugh at Bancorp Treasury Services has pushed the envelope farthest, picking Bollard won't hike until September next year.

“In our view, the world is going to move along the bottom of the cycle and interest rates will be lower for longer,” Cavanaugh says.

“The only caveat is if there are signs growth is starting to take hold and inflation's becoming an imminent threat, not only in New Zealand but around the world.”

Still, Cavanaugh says he can't see where domestic growth is going to come from with plenty of evidence the Rugby World Cup tourism influx has displaced other tourists, the Christchurch rebuild being delayed and the export sector, particularly the dairy sector, still focused on paying down debt.

Chris Green at First NZ Capital, who doesn't expect Bollard will raise rates until next June, says consensus forecasts for both global and domestic growth are being revised down.
As well, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe leaves New Zealand banks still vulnerable to increasing funding costs.

Central banks around the world are also on hold with the US Federal Reserve saying it won't raise rates until mid-2013, the Bank of England engaging in additional quantitative easing (effectively printing money) and the Reserve Bank of Australia moving from a hawkish stance to neutral and likely to move to dovish soon.

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand doesn't want to be moving rates in a different direction from Australia – you would want some pretty punchy numbers to be raising rates in New Zealand,” Green says. He says financial markets have even priced in a 2% chance of a rate cut on Thursday.

Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank, who has provisionally kept his forecast of when the next rate rise will come at March, says the New Zealand leading indicators highlight “a still-fragile recovery. Overall, there is no urgency for the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates in the coming months.”

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