ANZ takes contrary view on next OCR hike
The Official Cash Rate will remain the same for the rest of the year, according to ANZ Bank.
Despite consensus there will be a December cut, the bank said those odds were at 30% and they had faith in the economic data that showed further improvement into year-end.
“In the aftermath of the RBNZ’s decision to keep the OCR on hold at 2.75%, we have once again found ourselves out of consensus on our views for the monetary policy outlook from here – as we were in May and June,” the bank stated.
“But this is not because we think that the easing cycle is over; far from it. With growth still sub-trend (albeit stabilising) and inflation low (and the high NZD delaying the return of inflation to 2%), one further 25bp cut in the OCR to 2.5% remains our base case. In fact, the risk profile is skewed towards more easing beyond that.”
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