Big changes to interest rate forecasts
The mortgagerates.co.nz survey of economists shows that no one is expecting the Reserve Bank to increase its OCR any time soon, and after last week's CPI announcement many economists are reviewing their forecasts and pushing out the date of the next increase.
At the time of the previous OCR announcement six weeks ago the general view is that the OCR would stay at its current rate of 3.50% until March next year. This forecast is changing.
Nine of the respondents are now saying the next increase is possible in September next year however others have indicated that they may revise their forecasts and push the next increase out to 2016.
The Reserve Bank moved early with its monetary policy tightening and delivered a quick 100 basis point increase in four consecutive increases of 25 basis points since March. Some economists say the central bank may, in retrospect, have moved too far too early and if it had its time again would not have delivered the 100 basis point rise.
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