Bollard to hold OCR amid faltering retail spending and housing market
A GoodReturns survey of 12 economists showed all are expecting Bollard to leave his official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5%. The big division of opinion is whether Bollard will start raising the OCR in June or July.
Currently wholesale interest markets are pricing in only about a 40% chance of a June hike but the weight of opinion among economists is picking the OCR will rise in June.
Darren Gibbs at Deutsche Bank says although the domestic sector is slightly weaker than expected, the export sector outlook is clearly stronger, which he regards as positive.
Back in March, Bollard was worrying the wold economy might be weaker than expected but "consensus forecasts of trading partner growth have been revised up moderately at this stage," Gibbs says. "Recent data in the US and Asia suggests that upward forecast revisions will be forthcoming." There is some upside risk of stronger growth in Europe too, he says.
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