House price bust talk exaggerated
Investment bank Goldman Sachs has released a report which says there is a 40% chance the New Zealand housing market will see a price “bust” in the next two years.
However, it defines a “bust” as house prices falling 5% or more after adjustment for inflation.
Economic commentator Michael Reddell said that a 5% fall in real house prices could only be described as a "bust" in some sort of alternative universe.
If the Reserve Bank does its job and keep annual CPI inflation around 2%, unchanged nominal house prices for 2.5 years is a real fall of around 5%, he said.
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