Interest rate rise could surprise, economist warns
The Reserve Bank today published a report detailing how it estimates New Zealand's neutral interest rate.
The report, by Rebecca Williams and Adam Richardson, says it is important the Reserve Bank knows what a neutral rate would be, so it can gauge how expansionary or contractionary its current monetary policy settings are for the market.
If it worries that inflation is tracking above its target band of 1% to 3%, it is more likely to raise the OCR above the neutral rate. If inflation is low, it will position the OCR below the neutral rate.
“Such a policy reaction helps keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored close to the target mid-point,” the report says.
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