Investors should gird for a US post-election roller coaster

In a webinar considering the impact of various election outcome scenarios, LA-based Miller's opinion was that the November 5th election will be decided on a coin toss.

“If, after voting, it’s a close call - investors need to be prepared for real tumultuous periods between Nov 5 and Jan 20, when the next president is inaugurated because we should expect challenges with both sides saying they really won. Both sides are preparing themselves with armies of lawyers.”

Miller said people outside the US need to understand that on the centre-left of the American system, there is a deep frustration with what are seen as structural barriers to majority rule; the Electoral College (EC) and the structure of the US Senate. So small states like Wyoming and Montana have the same number of senators as big states like California and New York.

Trump won the 2016 election with 78,000 EC votes in three states despite losing the popular vote by more than 2 million. In 2020, Biden won with seven million popular votes but only 44,000 Electoral College votes in three states.