Key themes and conclusions from the past 10 years

While it is difficult to believe that it is 10 years since the GFC, the world has changed significantly since then.

Although the US financial system remains the dominant force within global capital markets and flows, the way in which banks and financial institutions operate has evolved in the QE / low rate regime.

However, as nominal rates rise, and “QT” occurs, institutions may have to alter their behaviour once again. This may have very big implications for how markets operate and function – the last ten years will not provide a reliable guide to the next few years and nowhere will this be more apparent than in the ‘quant’ funds.

Meanwhile, within the global real economy, China has become the dominant source not just of global GDP growth but also global trade growth. Indeed, we would argue that while the US may still be the arbiter of global liquidity, China is now the arbiter of global economic growth trends.