OCR tipped to stay on hold but changes loom
Of 18 economist surveyed by this website, all were very confident that the OCR would be left unchanged this week. But five expect some movement before the end of 2013.
Tom Kennedy, of JP Morgan, was the least convinced, putting his prediction at 70% probability.
Annette Beacher, of TD Securities, said she was 95% convinced the rate would stay the same at the next announcement. But she is expecting a 25 basis point lift in September, provided house prices continue to rise. “I suspect they will.”
The Reserve Bank this month released a consultation framework on its proposed macroprudential tools, designed to tackle asset price bubbles and shore up bank stability without dampening the wider economy. Among them are loan-to-value restrictions, a countercyclical capital buffer, a core funding ratio and sectoral capital requirements.
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