Risks facing financial system have increased

New Zealand’s financial system continues to perform well despite a deterioration in the outlook for global financial stability and increased risks related to the dairy and housing sectors, Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler, said today when releasing the Bank’s November Financial Stability Report.

“Global economic growth has softened over the past six months, and uncertainty over the path of economic and financial adjustment in China has helped to depress commodity prices and added to financial market uncertainty. Interest rates at historic lows are encouraging higher leverage, leading to a build-up in risk in international asset markets. This environment creates risks for the New Zealand banking system, which remains reliant on the global markets for funding.

“The dairy sector faces a second consecutive season of weak cash flow due to low international dairy commodity prices. Prices have shown some recovery since August, but many indebted farms are coming under increased pressure, which would be exacerbated if low dairy prices are sustained or dairy farm prices fall significantly.

“House price growth in Auckland has increased strongly with house price-to-income ratios in the region now comparable to those seen in some of the world’s most expensive cities. Rising investor activity has been an important driver of price developments, and international evidence suggests that investor loans have a higher tendency to default in the event of a major downturn in the housing market.