Investments
Trade Walls, Profit Falls: NZX 50’s Tariff Exposure Unpacked
Saturday 17th of May 2025
Article written by: Sam Arcand, Investment Analyst, Mint Asset Management
The Trump administration’s tariff strategy is a hot topic in the investment world. At Mint, we’ve had our fair of discussions. To help you make sense of the nonsense, in this article, I provide a framework of tariff exposure for every NZX50 company.
I define three broad categories of exposure and bucket each NZX50 company into one. They are:
Tariff Exposure Categories – Definitions
| Categories | Definition |
|---|---|
| Category 1: Directly Exposed | Companies which released an update on tariffs to the NZX commenting on their exposure. Here the analysis focuses on estimates earnings exposure assuming the company fully absorbed the margin hit, while holding volumes steady. |
| Category 2: Economic Activity Proxies |
Companies with earnings that have a high level of exposure to the level of broad economic activity, particularly internationally. NB: in this article, I only provide (naïve) estimates of direct tariff exposure, so have not quantified company exposures in this category. |
| Category 3: Second Order Impact |
Companies for whom the exposure is most indirect and where there may be complex and/or offsetting crosswinds on the company’s earnings. Earnings exposure for these companies is not quantified for the same reason as for the category above. |
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