Housing consents buoyant

The rising trend in housing consents begun in January last year continued in February, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Tuesday, March 26th 2002, 8:20PM

by Jenny Ruth

The unadjusted figures show 1,745 new homes worth $293.3 million were approved in February compared with 1,526 new homes worth $252.9 million in January and 1, 397 worth $206.2 million approved in February last year. Seasonally adjusted, consents rose 12.7% in February.

In the year ended February, an average of 1,757 new homes were approved compared with an average 1,639 a month in the previous year, an increase of 118, or 7.2%, a month.

"This change has mainly been driven by an increase in the average number of dwelling units in the Auckland region, up 73 dwelling units per month on average or 11.6% compared with the year ended February 2001," the government statistician says.

Otago also experienced a significant 44.8% increase in monthly consents in the latest year.

Deutsche Bank senior economist Darren Gibbs says the latest monthly increase was driven by apartment approvals – excluding apartments, the February figure was actually down 0.8% from January.

The number of apartments approved jumped to 288 worth $32.6 million in February from 107 worth $11.5 million in January and 76 worth $7.5 million in February last year.

"By all accounts, the demand for housing is continuing to strengthen at a rate that is outstripping the supply of existing homes coming onto the market, with the Auckland market especially buoyant," Gibbs says.

It’s therefore not surprising that demand is spilling over into new construction, higher house prices and rising rents, he says.

While apartment consents are inherently volatile, "we think it reasonable that this type of development will perform well in trend terms, given the composition of the migrant inflow – apartments will be attractive to students and young professionals."

Gibbs says he expects further projected interest rate rises and a decline in net immigration will gradually undermine growth in housing market activity. "We think that the housing market activity will peak around the third quarter of this year."

He notes that the Reserve Bank’s latest monetary policy statement forecast annual average growth in building investment of 19% in the year ending March 2003. "In our view, further substantial growth in dwelling consents will be required if that forecast is to be realised," Gibbs says.

Today’s figures show that in the year ended February, there were 21,078 new homes worth $3.282 billion approved, up from 19,670 worth $2.879 billion approved in the previous year. The number of apartments approved in the latest year was 3,062 worth $266.8 million, up from 2,189 worth $201.2 million approved a year earlier.

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