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Close call on rates

The one thing most economists agree on is that it will be a close call whether the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates tomorrow.

Monday, April 26th 2004, 9:55PM
ANZ Bank chief economist David Drage is worried about the persistent strength of the housing market coupled with the recent sharp fall in the New Zealand dollar. He now rates it a 60% chance that the central bank will raise its official cash rate (OCR) from 5.25% to 5.5%.

The New Zealand dollar fell as low as 61.82 US cents last week, more than 4.5% down on its high this year. While domestic or "non-tradeables" inflation has been running hot, up 1.2% in the March quarter and up 5% in the year ended March (house prices rose 20.3% in the year), overall inflation has been kept in check by weak import and export or "tradeables" prices.

On the other hand, ASB Bank economist Kate Skinner says the scales have tipped in favour of no change in interest rates, largely because the overall inflation rate, 0.4% in the March quarter, was below market expectations of 0.5% and the Reserve Bank’s own forecast of 0.6%.

"These data buy the Reserve Bank some time with which to reconsider the divergent pressures present in the economy during the more thorough process associated with the June monetary policy statement," Skinner says. But she too thinks the decision will be close.

Macquarie Bank takes the same view, expecting that current inflation pressures will be temporary.

Westpac Bank acknowledges the fall in the currency, but says this could reverse if the US Federal Reserve doesn’t raise interest rates or if US data disappoints. "We believe the Reserve Bank should invest in some deep breathing exercises and keep the OCR on hold," it says.

A recent poll showed five of 13 economists were expecting a rate hike.

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 5.44 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.99 5.99 5.69 5.69
ANZ 7.89 6.59 6.29 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Bank 7.89 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 8.40 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.94 5.99 5.69 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 5.79 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 7.65 5.99 5.75 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 7.65 6.49 6.25 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 6.40 6.10 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.00 6.70 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▲7.75 ▲6.65 ▲6.35 ▲5.99
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society ▼8.60 6.75 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 5.99 5.65 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.75 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 8.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.75 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 8.44 5.95 6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 7.99 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - 6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 5.44 5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.69 6.49 6.49 6.49
TSB Special 7.89 5.69 5.69 5.69
Unity 7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.10 6.05 5.79 -
Westpac 8.39 6.89 6.39 6.39
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Median 7.99 6.10 6.09 5.69

Last updated: 20 November 2024 9:45am

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