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Weakening trend but housing consents still high

Although housing consents are still at historically high levels, housing construction activity has declined for the fourth month in a row.

Tuesday, June 29th 2004, 2:17PM

by Jenny Ruth

A consistent pattern of weakening housing construction activity is emerging, although housing consents are still at historically high levels.

The 2,544 housing consents worth $490.8 million issued in May were just one less than the number issued in April but in seasonally adjusted terms were down 0.5%. While not a huge drop, it was the fourth month in a row to show a decline.

Statistics New Zealand says its trend series has been declining since November last year.

National Bank economists note that excluding apartments, consents have been broadly unchanged since February in seasonally adjusted terms.

In May, apartment consents fell to 306 worth $41.5 million from 644 worth $55.5 million in April.

Still, the bank notes there is a lag between consents being issued and the houses actually being built which suggests there is more supply coming on than demand.

"We anticipate that residential investment growth will contract over 2005. However, the risks to the housing market weigh on the downside – net migration is falling, construction costs are rising and building consents, although falling, remain high," National Bank says.

Ulf schoefisch, chief economist at Deutsche Bank says significant backlogs suggest that the downtrend in actual construction won’t occur until the end of this year.

But he says construction cost inflation may have peaked with the annual increase in the average construction cost per square metre unchanged at 7.2%, down from a peak of 9.8 earlier this year.

Today’s figures showed the 31,793 consents issued in the year ended May were 11% higher than in the previous year and that it was the largest total for a year ending May since 1975.

Nine out of 16 regions recorded more consents in May this year than in May 2003 while the Auckland region contributed 835 units, or 33%, of the total number of May’s consents.

« Housing market easing at "fairly fast clip"The Low Down on Lo–Doc »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 5.44 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.99 5.99 5.69 5.69
ANZ 7.89 6.59 6.29 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Bank 7.89 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 8.40 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.94 5.99 5.69 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 5.79 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 7.65 5.99 5.75 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 7.65 6.49 6.25 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 6.40 6.10 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.00 6.70 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.49 ▼5.65 ▼5.55 ▼5.55
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.00 6.50 -
ICBC 7.49 5.99 5.65 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.75 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 8.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.75 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 8.44 ▼6.39 ▼6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 7.99 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - ▼6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 5.44 ▼5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.69 6.79 6.49 6.49
TSB Special 7.89 5.99 5.69 5.69
Unity ▼7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.50 ▼6.19 ▼5.79 -
Westpac 8.39 6.89 6.39 6.39
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Median 7.99 6.17 5.79 5.69

Last updated: 30 October 2024 9:36am

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