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Views changing on interest rate moves

The latest survey of economists, done by Mortgagerates.co.nz, shows that even the experts are unsure of what will happen with interest rates.

Monday, August 15th 2011, 8:47AM

The majority are picking that the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate between 25 and 50 basis points in December.

"However they are less certain than ever," publisher Philip Macalister says. "Normally economists place a pretty high probability on their predictions, but that has not been the case this time around."

Also recent economic events, particularly in global markets, have forced the economists to change their forecasts made just after the recent OCR announcement.

In the home loan market ASB moved soon after OCR announcement and increased nearly all its fixed rates. Since then it has done a u-turn, and dropped its rates all to positions lower than before the rises.

Interestingly none of the trading banks have followed suit and lowered rates across the board.

The exceptions are Kiwibank which dropped its one-year fixed rate to 5.65%, the same as its floating rate.

Mr Macalister says Kiwibank has regularly taken market leading positions on specific terms.

"This current move, which it has promised will last until the end of this month, looks like being the first shot fired in the up-coming Spring advertising campaign.

Westpac and Kiwibank also increased the rate on their capped one year loan, giving some indication of where they expect rates to move to over time.

« Top brokers awardedWestpac's mortgage book grew strongly in June Qtr »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 5.44 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.99 5.99 5.69 5.69
ANZ 7.89 6.59 6.29 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Bank 7.89 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 8.40 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.94 5.99 5.69 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 5.79 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 7.65 5.99 5.75 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 7.65 6.49 6.25 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 6.40 6.10 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.00 6.70 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.49 5.65 5.55 5.55
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society ▼8.60 6.75 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 5.99 5.65 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.75 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 8.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.75 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 8.44 5.95 6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 7.99 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - 6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 5.44 5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.69 6.49 6.49 6.49
TSB Special 7.89 5.69 5.69 5.69
Unity 7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.10 6.05 5.79 -
Westpac 8.39 6.89 6.39 6.39
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Median 7.99 6.02 5.79 5.69

Last updated: 20 November 2024 9:45am

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