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Hint of optimism in OCR announcement

The decision this morning to leave the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5% hasn’t surprised anyone – but the hint of optimism included with the Reserve Bank governor’s statement has.

Thursday, October 25th 2012, 10:09AM

by Susan Edmunds

New governor Graeme Wheeler said: “Market sentiment has improved from earlier in the year, suggesting the risks to the global outlook are more balanced. Domestically, GDP continues to expand at a modest pace. Housing market activity is increasing as expected, and repairs and reconstruction in Canterbury are boosting the construction sector.”
Mark Lister, of Craigs Investment Partners, who was confident earlier in the week that Wheeler would not tinker with the rate, said that was being taken as a sign that the RBNZ would not respond to calls for a drop in the OCR.


A drop in inflation below the RBNZ target band was taken a sign the OCR could drop but Wheeler appears to have shrugged that off. “While annual CPI inflation has fallen to 0.8%, the Bank continues to expect inflation to head back towards the middle of the target range. We will continue to monitor inflation indicators, such as pricing intention and inflation expectation data, closely over coming months.”
Lister said people could read into Wheeler’s statement that the next OCR move was likely to be up, although that was still some time off.  The Kiwi dollar lifted after the announcement.
He said home loan interest rates would likely also remain flat in the medium-term. “People who had been expecting another OCR cut and a leg down for interest rates will find that’s not the case over the short-term at least.”
Wheeler noted that fiscal consolidation was constraining demand growth and the high currency was undermining exporters’ earnings. He also noted that the signs of improvement in the economy were tempered by the fragility of global markets.
But Dominick Stephens, Westpac chief economist, said Wheeler seemed notable more upbeat about the global economy. He said he appeared to have an orthodox approach to monetary policy, with his focus firmly on inflation. “He reiterated a hold statement, perhaps with a bit more flexibility either way.”
Cameron Bagrie, of ANZ, said those expecting a policy change from Wheeler were unrealistic. “I still think the Reserve Bank is in worry, wait and watch mode.”
He said he expected it would be a while before the OCR was cut or raised.

« New governor leaves OCR aloneFloating rate rise riles customers »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 5.44 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.99 5.99 5.69 5.69
ANZ 7.89 6.59 6.29 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Bank 7.89 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 8.40 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.94 5.99 5.69 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 5.79 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 7.65 5.99 5.75 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 7.65 6.49 6.25 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 6.40 6.10 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.00 6.70 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▲7.75 ▲6.65 ▲6.35 ▲5.99
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society ▼8.60 6.75 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 5.99 5.65 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.75 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 8.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.75 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 8.44 5.95 6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 7.99 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - 6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 5.44 5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.69 6.49 6.49 6.49
TSB Special 7.89 5.69 5.69 5.69
Unity 7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.10 6.05 5.79 -
Westpac 8.39 6.89 6.39 6.39
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Median 7.99 6.10 6.09 5.69

Last updated: 20 November 2024 9:45am

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