Latest survey good news for the RBNZ

A new survey from the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) suggests the current spike in inflation might not last.

Monday, August 8th 2022, 7:51PM

by Eric Frykberg

It indicates inflation will come back close to the top of the RBNZ targets in 2024.

At present, price growth of 7.3% is more than double the bank's supposed maximum.

To get an idea of how long this will last and how severe it will be, the bank surveys forecasters, economists and industry leaders every three months to gauge the sort of inflation they are expecting.

The latest survey showed one-year-ahead, and two-year-ahead inflation was expected to decline to 4.86% and 3.07%, respectively.

Long-term inflation was expected to sit close to the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target band range of 1 – 3%.

For example, five-years-out inflation was expected to come in at 2.33%, lower than the equivalent number forecast three months ago.

The OCR was expected to be at 3.5% in a year’s time.

If these sentiments are borne out, they will be good news to mortgage advisers, since they signal an easing of the recent surge of interest rate rises which can be costly to their clients.

In another part of the survey, economic growth was expected to subside this year and next but pick up after that, though at a modest pace.

ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the results would be reassuring to the Reserve Bank and reduced the possibility of a 75 point hike in the OCR next week.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that the sample size of the RBNZ survey was relatively small, meaning that the results should be viewed with caution.

Satish Ranchhod of Westpac also thought the survey would be good news for the Reserve Bank.

Even so, inflation was still strong for now and a 50 point jump in the OCR next week was most likely.

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