Budget to support monetary policy
The Budget is focusing on re-structuring the tax system with the main changes expected to be: an increase in GST from 12.5% to 15%, lower income tax rates across the board and changes in tax policy around residential investment property with a mix of removing depreciation and possibly ring fencing.
The ANZ Market Focus report says initiatives in the Budget won't change prospects for a June hike, but they are likely to give markets reason to expect a lower endgame for the Official Cash Rate (OCR).
ASB Business Weekly believes the Reserve Bank is likely to be reasonably relaxed about the Budget, if there are no unexpected changes to the property tax rules.
It says the market sees a rate hike in June as a done deal following the impressive first quarter recovery in employment.
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