Covid predictions – how did we do?
On 29 July, Dr Ashley Bloomfield gave his last update on Covid-19 as Director General of Health, the number of deaths has hit 1,479 on the newly released basis counting only those deaths attributable to Covid.
Each death is a tragedy, and more are expected, but we can be glad that the totals are substantially lower than originally estimated. Recently, we revisited our pandemic predictions – modelled first in March 2020 - to see how we are tracking.
Back in March 2020, while the pandemic was still only beginning, we wrote that we believed the impact on life insurance would be low. While some of my other predictions about the pandemic were wrong, this one has been proven correct so far, and likely to remain so.
Originally deaths estimated using our worst-case scenarios were between 28,600 and 62,900. This compared with official modelling which put possible deaths at about 40,000 at the time.
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