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Mortgage rates may have bottomed already as RBNZ holds OCR

Wednesday 9th of July 2025

The RBNZ’s key reasons for keeping its official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 3.25%, as expected, included continued economic uncertainty and the risk of higher inflation.

However, the central bank said the case for lowering the OCR remains “broadly consistent” with the central projection outlined in its May monetary policy statement.

That projection had the OCR bottoming at 2.9% in the December quarter of this year and remaining at that level through to the March quarter of 2027, suggesting up to another couple of 25 basis points cuts.

RBNZ expects the annual consumers price index will rise towards the top of its 1% to 3% target band through the middle of this year but will return to about 2% by early 2026.

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