No celebrations just yet
“Come back in November”, Jarrod Kerr, Kiwibank chief economist says.
He and peers at Westpac, BNZ and ANZ expect the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) to keep the OCR at 5.5% in its review on Wednesday.
They also expect the RBNZ to keep the Monetary Policy Statement similar to April, although Kerr foresees a few dovish chirps acknowledging the deterioration in economic data and a fresh OCR track.
“In a purely technical sense, the RBNZ’s OCR track indicates a 35% chance of another hike. We’d expect that risk to be all but removed next week and instead the focus will turn to the timing of cuts,” Kerr says.
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