Why life expectancy has improved – and how much further we can go?

Some people think that mortality improvements ceased with, say, germ theory, antibiotics, or improvements in child mortality - take your pick. Reducing the great increase in longevity over the last 200 years down to just one or two major steps forward.

Awkwardly for these 'tweet-sized' arguments, the truth is much more complicated, with contributions to increased lifespans from a very wide range of sources, continuing over a long period of time. Covid-19 notwithstanding, we think these can continue.

For evidence, take a look at the following chart showing life expectancy by age in England and Wales from 1700 to 2013. Improvement has been most dramatic in life expectancy at birth, from 41.6 years in 1841 to 81.1 years in 2013.

The large gains made due to reductions in child mortality have contributed enormously, but the continuing nature of the gains shows that no one event can be given all the credit, and of course, many improvements that lengthen those lives must be happening later in their lives.