Where are all the investors?

The recovery in the United States has been dubbed by one commentator as the investorless recovery.

While economic data suggests the global economic recovery is a happening story, the markets aren't taking any notice.

In its latest research piece Macquarie

"Although there is still considerable scepticism, the data are giving a consistent message: economic recovery is here. Perhaps the most encouraging aspect is that recovery is not just concentrated in the United States. Evidence in both Asia and Europe is now pointing to stronger economic growth around the world."

It says the surprise package is Japan. That country's first quarter GDP numbers were "too strong to be believed," Macquarie says. However since then other evidence, including personal consumption has shown great resiliency.

Macquarie also points out that Europe is recovering, but not as spectacularly as either the United States or Japan.

So the economies are heading in the right direction, but the markets are failing to follow.

Macquarie says there are some obvious explanations for these gaps. A key factor is that the US Federal Reserve is indicating that it is happy with the current stance of monetary policy. As long as this holds true, then the link between stronger economic data and bond markets will be tenuous.

Macquarie's stance is that investors should be overweight equities because the market is yet to catch up with what's happening in the economy.

"The divergence between equities performance and the improving economic outlook is made more surprising by the continued improvement in earnings expectations. One of the reasons put forward for continued equities weakness despite robust economic data is the ongoing concerns with accounting irregularities.

"Analysts do not seem to be overly concerned with these irregularities and continue to post earnings upgrades. Furthermore, recent weakness in US equities has pushed the risk premium back into extremely cheap territory. The US risk premium is now around the same level reached after the September 11 attacks and the Russian crisis/LTCM collapse in 1998. In both cases the equity risk premium proved a strong signal for subsequent equity market outperformance."

Macquarie is also suggesting an underweight position in fixed interest. Although long term US interest rates have fallen there is a major risk bond yields will move higher.

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