Housing market slows gradually: economist

Seasonally adjusted, housing consents fell 10.7% in April after rising 15.7% in March. Excluding apartments, consents were down 4.3% from March.

The raw numbers show there were 2,232 consents worth $400.3 million issued in April compared with 2,537 worth $435.7 million in March and 2,206 worth $338.8 million in April last year.

Apartment approvals fell to 447 from 476 in March but were up on the 439 approved in April last year.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs notes that the overall monthly movement was the tenth consecutive move in double digits.

"Looking though the extreme monthly volatility, we remain comfortable with our assessment that the housing market peaked late last year and that a gentle slowdown is now underway," Gibbs says.

That view is supported by the latest Statistics New Zealand figures.

They say the trend for consents has been declining since November 2002.

Nevertheless, it warns against reading too much into this because of the volatility of apartment approvals. "The trend series for new dwelling units, excluding apartments, remains steady," it says.

Still, there are other signs growth is slowing. In the key Auckland region, consents in April were actually 240 lower than in April last year. Auckland consents in April accounted for 35% of the total.

But Gibbs thinks any slowdown will remain gradual because the market will be supported by continued strong migrant inflows and declining interests rates.

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