Mixed messages with house prices: REINZ
The New Zealand residential property market began 2005 quietly with an increased national median selling price but with falls in some areas and a significant reduction in sales.
Friday, February 18th 2005, 4:20PM
Notwithstanding, the national median selling price hit a new record of $265,000 in January, compared with the December median of $260,000.
However Real Estate Institute president Howard Morley said that the key indicators for the market: sales volume, regional rises and falls, and days-to-sell, suggested a degree of caution on the part of both buyers and sellers.
Turnover was down to 7,078 sales in January compared with 8,377 in December and 8,404 in January 2004, with four of the 11 regions reporting reduced median prices while the remaining seven showed modest increases.
Days to sell lengthened noticeably from 29 in December to 38 in January, compared with 32 in the previous corresponding period of January 2004.
"What we have is evidence of a shortage of listings, coupled with vendors showing a degree of determination on price. January is always one of the quieter months and it will be another month or two before we see a trend for the rest of the year,” Morley said.
Northland’s median was down from $221,500 in December to $210,000, while Auckland’s median was down from $350,000 to $340,000.
Morley said that the Auckland region figures provided an example of the need to approach statistics gathered at the beginning of the year, with a degree of caution.
“While the Auckland region and Auckland Metropolitan region medians are down I think we should resist reading too much into median price movements at this time of the year.”
Although the Auckland region median was down and the Auckland Metropolitan median also decreased from $355,000 to $340,000, this appeared to be due mainly to a fall in the Auckland City median from $412,500 in December to $385,000 in January – the explanation for which lay deep in sales trends, Morley said.
Analysis of the Auckland City figures indicated that there had been a shift in the types of properties sold during January, most probably due to increased sales of smaller apartments and lower sales of top end properties.
“For example sales of four bedroom properties fell from 148 in December to 77 in January, sales of three bedroom properties fell from 286 in December to 234 in January, yet sales of two bedroom properties were up from 153 in December to 175 and one bedroom sales were up from 50 to 68 in January.
“The impact on median prices is obvious and with these trends in the types of properties sold, it is not difficult to see why medians are moving around a lot. Therefore I think it is a bit early to predict the end of the property market’s current cycle.”
The Waikato/Bay of Plenty/Gisborne region recorded an increased median up from $232,000 in December to $243,000 in January, but on much lower turnover of 1,258 sales in January compared with 1,632 in December and 1,423 in January 2004.
Hawkes Bay also enjoyed an increased median, up from $225,000 to $245,050, on relatively strong sales, with 286 transactions in January compared with 295 in December and 309 in January 2004.
But Manawatu/Wanganui was down from $150,000 to $140,000 in January on much decreased sales, however as if to reflect the theme of regional variations Taranaki’s median rose from $186,000 to $195,000.
Wellington eased a little from $276,250 in December to $275,000 in January while Nelson/Marlborough was up from $265,000 in December to $269,000 in January.
All South Islands districts showed an increase in their median price. Canterbury/Westland continued the trend up from $231,000 in December to $235,000 and Otago followed up with a rise from $200,000 in December to $205,000 in January.
Southland was not about to be left out and managed a small increase in its median from $138,000 to $139,000.
Among the major cities, Hamilton’s median was up from $226,000 to $244,000 while Tauranga eased from $320,000 to $296,500 following recent strong growth. Christchurch City was down from $257,250 to $250,000 and Dunedin City was down slightly from $217,000 to $215,000.
Nationally the median selling price was up 16.35% on the figure of $227,750 in January 2004 with Taranaki taking the lead in year-on-year increases with a 38.8% increase, followed by Waikato/Bay of Plenty/Gisborne up 29.2%, with Hawkes Bay lying third with a 29% increase. Auckland and Wellington lagged behind, comparatively, at 8.45% and 7.8% increases respectively.
Price band sales figures showed most of the drop in sales occurred in the under $400,000 bracket, with 5,674 sales compared with 6,638 in December and 7,088 in January 2004. Sales in the $400,001 to $600,000 bracket fell from 1,129 in December to 974 in January (879 in January 2004) and sales in the over $600,000 bracket dropped noticeably from 610 in December to 430, similar to the January 2004 figure of 437.
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