Budget 2009: AXA Budget Commentary 2009
The 2009 Budget has been set in challenging economic and fiscal times and the Government has had to balance a number of competing objectives. They need to continue to support the economy during the worst part of the recession but, at the same time, ensure a pathway back to fiscal sustainability.
Friday, May 29th 2009, 11:50AM
by Bevan Graham
They have largely achieved that. While operating balances will deteriorate in the short-term, a return to surplus is forecast for 2017. It's at this time that the projected path for net debt starts to turn down again.
But the Government has had to make some hard decisions to achieve that. The next two planned tranches of personal income taxes have been deferred. Also, automatic contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund have been suspended until cash surpluses are large enough for contributions to resume. This will be a decade away.
The new Government has also taken the opportunity to reprioritise some of the former Government's spending initiatives. This has allowed significant headroom for their own priorities.
On balance we believe those initiatives are more supportive of building higher sustainable growth. We particularly like the emphasis on infrastructure and education. But we believe the Government has missed an opportunity to outline a more rigorous plan for building higher sustainable growth.
The Budget has not changed our view on the outlook for the New Zealand economy. We continue to believe the economy remains in recession for the rest of 2009 before entering a modest recovery in 2010.
Bevan Graham is AMP New Zealand's Chief Economist based in Wellington, New Zealand.
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