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OCR on hold for some time: NZIER

The Reserve Bank will keep interest rates on hold for some time in the face of the lacklustre economic recovery and contained inflationary pressures, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER).

Wednesday, July 11th 2012, 8:41AM

by Jenny Ruth

“Firms' profits remain under intense pressure from anaemic sales and razor thin margins. As a result, business investment intentions are soft for this stage of the economic recovery,” says principal NZIER economist Shamubeel Eaqub.

While there is encouraging evidence of a rebound in Canterbury following the earthquakes, the recovery has stagnated in the rest of the country, Eaqub says.

Other economists agree the central bank won't be raising its official cash rate (OCR), which directly influences floating mortgage rates, any time soon.

ASB economist Daniel Smith says he expects the OCR to be left on hold until at least March 2013.
“Inflation indicators suggest that pressures remain very subdued,” Smith says.

UBS economist Robin Clements says he had already revised his near-term forecasts downwards and the NZIER survey “reinforces the downside risks that the outlook already faced.”

“The easing of the inflationary guages in the (survey) does not raise the chances of a Reserve Bank rate cut but rather supports our on-hold for some time view,” Clements says.

However, BNZ economist Craig Ebert says he expects core inflation pressures to build which “will be the stuff to keep the Reserve Bank on its toes. Barring a nasty turn in the global economy, the Reserve Bank will be under increasing pressure to wind back its cash rate stimulus.”

“The housing market alone already suggests there is toom much demand in relation to limited supply.”

Ebert says he was surprised NZIER interpreted its survey “as soggy, slack and held up only by Canterbury.”

In his view, outside of Canterbury, “the rest of the economy plodded forth at a decent, if mild, rate. Yet the NZIER used adjectives of 'flat,' 'weak,' 'patchy' and 'slowing.' It must be possible, after all, to wear rose-tinted glasses back to front.”

« Kiwibank takes all of advisory firmWhat triggers home loan rate changes? »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 5.44 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.99 5.99 5.69 5.69
ANZ 7.89 6.59 6.29 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Bank 7.89 5.99 5.69 5.69
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 8.40 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.94 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.94 5.99 5.69 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 5.79 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 7.65 5.99 5.75 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 7.65 6.49 6.25 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 6.40 6.10 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.00 6.70 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▲7.75 ▲6.65 ▲6.35 ▲5.99
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society ▼8.60 6.75 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 5.99 5.65 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.75 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 8.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.75 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 8.44 5.95 6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 7.99 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - 6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 5.44 5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.69 6.49 6.49 6.49
TSB Special 7.89 5.69 5.69 5.69
Unity 7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.10 6.05 5.79 -
Westpac 8.39 6.89 6.39 6.39
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Median 7.99 6.10 6.09 5.69

Last updated: 20 November 2024 9:45am

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