When did Aucklands Property Boom really begin?
So when did Aucklands Property Boom really begin?
Tuesday, May 27th 2003, 6:39PM
by The Landlord
It's interesting to note that some Auckland property market commentators have the opinion that Aucklands property boom actually commenced in December 2001.But Property Market Analyst Kieran Trass of Hybrid Property Consulting completely disagrees with this timing... He reveals in the graph below that most Auckland regions started their property market "Recovery" phase from September 2001. Trass notes this recovery excluded the Papakura region which only started to recover from reducing values in mid to late 2002. Trass also points out these figures clearly evidence that Aucklands property market did not enter the "Boom" phase (i.e. strong growth throughout ALL Auckland regions, not just some) of the property cycle until the third quarter of 2002.
Trass notes that what we did evidence, in the period from Sept 2001 to June/Sept 2002, was a distinct movement through the "Recovery" phase of the traditional property cycle.
Trass also states that some market commentators do not understand that a boom is always preceded by a recovery phase (so they don’t account for the recovery phase) and they also will probably fail to understand when we enter the "Slump" phase. “You see we don't simply evidence a plummet in values. We will just evidence a trend in lower value growth initially, followed by an eventual bumpy ride, until we experience negative growth.”
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