REINZ Regional round-up
The REINZ Regional Report reveals just two regions failed to record double-digit sales growth on last year.
Tuesday, March 13th 2012, 12:00AM
by The Landlord
Auckland
Sales volume in the Auckland region increased by more than 30% compared with February 2011. Compared to February 2011, those parts of the region outside of the metropolitan area and Manukau City performed best.
The median price across the region eased by $3,000 compared with January 2012 to sit $3,000 above the February 2011 level. Price increases were evident in the sub regions of North Shore, Manukau City and Auckland City
Auckland's days to sell eased by a further day from 37 days in January to 38 days in February, but improved by 12 days compared to February 2011. The current level of 38 days is slightly above the long term average of 35 days.
Agents report continued shortages of listings and a continuation of the trend towards auctions by sellers. Agents are also reporting a noticeable pick up in buyer interest with higher levels of attendance at open homes and increasing acknowledgment that prices may be starting to move up.
The Auckland region trends show rising monthly volumes, although the recent growth in the median price seems to have flattened out somewhat. The trend on days to sell continues to improve although the January and February results show a weakening in this measure.
Wellington
The median price across the Wellington region increased by $3,000 compared to January, although eased by $20,500 compared to February 2011. Prices were strongest in Western Wellington and Southern Wellington, and weakest in Hutt Valley and Northern Wellington.
Volumes were up 57% compared to January, with some very strong results for Central, Northern and Western Wellington, with all three markets recording triple digit increases. On the other hand Upper Hutt, Eastern Wellington and Southern Wellington did relatively poorly.
Wellington's days to sell improved by 11 days compared to January, from 51 to 40 days, and improved by nine days compared to February 2011.
The trend in the median price continues to ease, although over the past few months prices have been relatively stable. This measure, at the regional level does mask some reasonably significant shifts in parts of the Wellington region.
The volume trend for the region remains flat; Wellington is not participating in the widespread increase in sales volume apparent in other regions. The days to sell trend continues to improve. Overall the trend for the region is flat.
Northland
Sales across the Northland region were up by a quarter compared with February 2011. Compared to January sales in Whangarei Country and Kerikeri more than doubled, with Northland overall being up by more than one third.
Northland recorded the third equal strongest lift in prices (behind Otago and Hawkes Bay) compared to January, with Kerikeri the stand out performer. Whangarei City eased back after strong increases in December and January. Compared to February last year prices fell across the region by 3.1%.
Northland's days to sell measure remains the longest of any region in New Zealand, although it continues to improve with a further one day reduction in the number of days to sell in February. The February result was 71 days, compared to 72 days in January and 111 days in February last year.
The median price trend for Northland continues to decline modestly, and remains in an essentially flat trend over the past three years.
Sales volume on the other hand is continuing to show a modest rise in line with the national trend. Overall the trend for Northland remains steady.
Waikato/Bay of Plenty
Sales volumes for Waikato / BOP region is up by over one third compared to February 2011, and bymore than half compared to January 2112. Sales volume was particularly strong in Mt Maunganui/Papamoa and Hamilton City, although weaker in the more easterly parts of the region.
The median price across the region rose by $10,000 compared to January, and by $6,000 compared to February 2011. Mt Maunganui/Papamoa recorded the strongest increases in prices across the region, with the more easterly parts again showing the weakest price movements.
The region's days to sell measure eased by a further two days in February compared to January, from 63 to 65 days, although the overall trend in days to sell is still improving. Compared to February last year the days to sell for the region improved by 14 days, from 79 to 65 days.
The trend in prices across the region continues to fall, although in February there appears to have been a modest turn upwards in the trend line. Volumes on the other hand are trending in line with the national trend, with a modest upswing in the number of sales taking place.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that there are more first home buyers in the market, although investors remain circumspect. Anecdotal evidence also suggests an increase in buyer interest from Christchurch in the Tauranga and Mt Maunganui parts of the region.
Hawkes Bay
Sales volumes in the Hawkes Bay region were up 11.4% compared to February 2011; the second weakest regional result for the month. The increase in sales compared to January was also the weakest regional result for the month.
In contrast the Hawkes Bay region has the second highest increase in median price compared the January, although most of this appears to have occurred in Hastings.
The region's days to sell measure eased by two days in February compared to January from 57 to 59 days. Compared to February 2011 the number of days to sell improved by just one day.
The trend in the median price has steadied in recent months, after falling through the early part of 2011. The trend line over the past five years is relatively flat.
The trend in sales volume is showing signs of a modest lift, although somewhat weaker than other regions. The trend in the number of days to sell is also moving sideways. Overall the trend for the region remains flat.
Manawatu/Wanganui
Manawatu/Wanganui recorded a 3.4% fall in the median price in February compared to January, although this came after a relatively strong price performance in January. Compared to February 2011 prices have also eased by 4.6% with only Feilding recording a noticeable increase in prices.
The region recorded an increase in sales volume similar to the national result compared to January, although compared to February 2011 the regional result was the fourth worst. Strong sales results in Feilding and Wanganui were offset by weaker results for Palmerston North and Levin.
In something of a contrast the region's days to sell measure improved by five days compared to January, from 61 days to 56 days. Compared to February last year the number of days to sell improved by nine days.
The trend in the median price across the region has started to tilt lower over the past few months, with the February result confirming this trend. Anecdotal evidence continues to suggest that buyers in the region are being cautious with regards to price.
The trend in sales volume continues to rise, although as with many provincial regions the increase is modest in comparison with the historical trends. The trend in the number of days to sell is also improving, although modestly. Overall the trend for the region is flat.
Taranaki
After a strong increase last month, the median price across the region has fallen by more than 10% in February, and also has fallen by 4.6% compared to February last year. A good portion of the fall in the median price for February, compared to January was a sharp drop in Taranaki Country.
Sales volumes for the region were broadly in line with the national result in comparison to January and February 2011. Sales volumes were particularly robust in Taranaki Country, with good results across the rest of the region.
The region's days to sell measure eased by 11 days in February compared to January, from 53 to 64 days. The number of days to sell in February last year was also 64 days. Over the past four months the number of days to sell has increased by 22, from 42 to 64 days.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that the mood in Taranaki is improving with both buyers and sellers becoming more active in the real estate market.
The trends in the Taranaki region show that prices and volumes are moving modestly higher, although the recent weakening in the number of days to sell suggests no real improvement in that measure. Overall the trend for the region appears to be mildly positive.
Nelson/Marlborough
The median price across the region increased by $5,000 in February compared to January, although it eased by $1,000 compared to February last year. Marlborough/Kaikoura recorded the highest increase in prices, with Nelson City recording the weakest performance across the region.
The region had the second strongest increase in sales volumes compared to February 2011, with that increase being well spread throughout the region.
The number of days to sell across the region improved by an impressive 20 days in February, compared with January, which suggests that the January result was something of an anomaly. The number of days to sell in February was 37 compared to 57 in January and 48 in February 2011.
The trend in the median price remains essentially flat. On the other hand the trend in volumes is moving higher, in line with many other regions and at a slightly faster pace than most.
The trend in the number of days to sell continues to improve with a steady improvement. Overall the trend of the region is improving modestly.
Canterbury/Westland
The Canterbury/Westland region recorded a more than doubling of sales volume in February compared to February last year, although last year's result was impacted by the second Christchurch Earthquake.
The increase in the regional median price is once again being driven by price increases in the regional centres (Rangiora, South Canterbury, West Coast) rather than in Christchurch City itself, most likely reflecting the continued move of people out of the city into nearby towns.
The Canterbury/Westland region reported the shortest number of days to sell for February at 35 days, and compares with 39 days in January and 57 days in February last year. The number of days to sell continues to trend quickly downwards reflecting the widespread shortage of properties across the region. A number of new subdivisions are coming on stream in Christchurch which will eventually help ease this pressure.
The median price trend for the region is rising the most rapidly of all regions in New Zealand, with a noticeable gap between the latest monthly result and the trend.
The number of sales in the region in February is the highest since October 2009 and underlines the rising volume trend in the region. The days to sell trend line is also continuing to fall. Overall the trend in the region is up.
Central Otago Lakes
The median price across the region fell $40,000 compared to January and by $41,000 compared to February 2011, with no clear direction from either Central or Queenstown.
In contrast the number of sales was up noticeably, with the region posting the highest number of sales since December 2007. The contribution from both Central and Queenstown was about equal, with Queenstown recording the larger percentage gains.
The number of days to sell eased by four days in February compared to January, although there was a four day improvement compared to February 2011.
The overall trend in prices across the region is flat, with the February data pulling the trend line down again. On the other hand volumes are rising and the days to sell measure also remains flat. On balance the outlook for the region is flat.
Otago
The Otago region recorded the lowest increase in sales volume compared to February 2011 and the second lowest compared to January. Sales volume was strong in North Otago and comparatively weaker in Dunedin City, reversing the results for January.
The median price increased by $14,250 in February compared to January, but only by $4,250 compared to February 2011. In terms of pricing Dunedin City fared best with a 5.5% increase compared to January and February 2011.
The number of days to sell improved by five days compared to January, from 48 to 43 days, and improved by 14 days compared to February 2011. The trend in days to sell continues to steadily improve. Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is more confidence coming into the market in Otago and there was stronger buyer inquiry for higher priced properties.
The trend in the median price continues to rise, although across the region the median price has stayed within a relatively narrow band between $225,000 and $250,000.
Volumes are also trending upward, although modestly compared to other regions. This combined with improving trends for prices and days to sell indicates that overall the trend for Otago is improving.
Southland
The number of sales in Southland at 184 for February was the highest since February 2008 and comes after a noticeably weak January; hence the more than 100% increase in sales. However, compared to February 2011 the increase in sales of over 60% is the second strongest across New Zealand.
While the sales volumes recovered in February, the median price continued to ease with a further 4.1% fall in February compared to January. Since October the median price has fallen by $21,750. The median price is also $27,750 lower than in February 2011, with the region recording the worst fall in median price across
The number of days to sell for Southland eased by two days from 49 to 51 between January and February, and compares with 52 days in February 2011.
The trend in the median price, which had been rising, has turned down, although the median price itself remains in the middle of the band it has moved in over the past three years.
The trend in sale volume is showing signs of moving higher, but the trend in the number of days to sell remains flat. Overall the trend of the region is also flat.
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