Calm heads will do well out of coming months: Newland

Expect the property market to get a serious case of the wobbles over the next few months if the political polls remain tight, says commentator Olly Newland.

Wednesday, May 21st 2014, 12:00AM

by The Landlord

But he said investors who kept their cool could do well.

“Remember the GFC where the stock markets tanked to levels not seen in decades? The canny investors who bought then have made a killing, and so it could be for our canny investors in the months to come.”

He said some of the topics that could worry the market were the outlook for interest rates, immigration, LVR rules, the prospect of a capital gains tax and a warrant of fitness scheme for rental properties.

"As the elections approach, and the various political parties ramp up their promises and threats, it is very likely that the residential property market may experience some serious wobbles."

Uncertainty about whether there was to be a crackdown on immigration would cause confusion about whether to buy or wait, he said, and the prospect of a capital gains tax coming in with a Labour Government would also cause upheaval.

"What that will do to the market can be imagined. We shall have a split market of 'before' and 'after' and the distortions will be horrendous and lead to some nervousness when the downstream effects are analysed."

LVR restrictions would continue to cause problems until they were lifted, he said.

"The heat and light the LVR rules have already generated will confuse the market even further over the months ahead. Already there have been stories of young people forced out of the market by what seems unfair treatment and no doubt more of these stories will emerge in the near future."

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