ANZ: Migration will be market backbone
Strengthening migration flows and solid employment should help support property prices, even as the market comes off the boil a bit, ANZ’s economists say.
Wednesday, September 24th 2014, 12:00AM
by The Landlord
In their latest Property Focus report, they said pre-election jitters had had an impact on the property market, with sales volumes down, the median time to sell growing and building consents flat.
Of the 10 gauges the report uses to measure the likely future direction of house prices, only migration is pointing purely up.
Affordability, serviceability, interest rates, consents, liquidity and rent could all be downward pressures on prices, the report said.
But migration was not letting up, it said: "Net permanent long-term migration keeps on strengthening."
There had been little movement in the amount of supply in the month.
On balance, the economists said the market was limping along. “[There’s] still a little fizz left but the bubbly is at room temperature.”
The report said the official cash rate was unlikely to move again for some time.
But it said how the construction industry fared would have an impact on that.
“High construction cost inflation is a signal of the investment requirements of the sector, and a sign that more needs to be done to improve performance in a sector that has tended
to be a productivity laggard… One of the factors determining the length of the [OCR movement] hiatus will be the extent to which the strengthening construction sector can be accommodated while maintaining overall inflation restraint.’
| « Healthy lifestyle property market: REINZ | Free Investment Property Showcase Events: Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch » |
Special Offers
Comments from our readers
No comments yet
Sign In to add your comment
|
|
Printable version |
|
Email to a friend |
