Housing shortfall highlighted

Almost 30,000 more people want to buy homes than want to sell them over the next year, new research shows.

Wednesday, December 24th 2014, 12:00AM

by The Landlord

The Horizon Research Housing Supply and Demand Survey found 5.9% of adult New Zealanders say they are “definitely” looking to purchase a property within the next year. But only 4% are definitely looking to sell.

The researchers said that indicated a nationwide gap of 29,000 dwellings.

If the loan-to-value restrictions, which limit lending to borrowers with equity of less than 20%, were relaxed, 9.6% of those who said they might buy in the next 12 months would become definite buyers.

The researchers said that could aggravate the supply shortage, particularly in Auckland.

Research manager Grant McInman said the number of dwelling sold on a seasonally-average annual basis had closely related to the survey’s findings of those intending to definitely sell over the past five years.

In Auckland the survey estimates an undersupply of 14,200 dwellings over the next year, down from 26,800 in February. That’s as a result of a drop in the number of people definite about buying from 6.9% to 5.9%.

Supply lifted slightly at the same time, from 2.4% of homeowners definitely looking to sell in February to 2.9% in November. The Auckland supply gap is 47% of the national undersupply, down from 63% in February.

Wellington also had a shortage, of 7700, reversing a trend of oversupply in the past three surveys. In the November survey, 8.7% of respondents said they would definitely buy, up from 5% in February while the number looking to sell dropped from 8.7% to 3.9%.

Christchurch now has a small oversupply.

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