No let-up in record migration

Migration into New Zealand hit another new high in August – and economists don’t see the flow slowing any time soon.

Monday, September 21st 2015, 1:52PM

by Miriam Bell

For the first time, over 60,000 people migrated to New Zealand in the August 2015 year, according to the latest Statistics New Zealand data.

Population statistics manager Joel Watkins said there was a record net gain of 60,300 migrants – thanks to both more arrivals and fewer departures.

At 117,900, migrant arrivals were up 13% on the August 2014 year. Migrant departures were down 5% to 57,600.

Watkins said the seasonally adjusted figures showed a record net gain of 5,500 migrants in August 2015.

Net migration has been fluctuating around 5,000 over the last 13 months and peaked in July 2015 at 5,700.

While all regions had a net gain of international migrants in the August 2015 year, 27,900 new migrants headed for Auckland.

The arrival of such high numbers of migrants in the SuperCity is adding further pressure to the feverish housing market.

It is worth remembering that a significant percentage of these migrants won’t settle in New Zealand long-term.

Westpac senior economist Felix Delbruck said net immigration has been boosted by a surge in temporary migrants from offshore - mostly migrant workers and international students.

There is little sign of migration slowing, especially as the net number of New Zealanders leaving remains near multi-decade lows, he said.

“With offshore labour markets remaining weak, it's likely to be some time yet before that changes. We expect migration to remain strong over the coming year.”

However, Delbruck said that, over the next few years, Westpac expects migration will slow significantly.

This is because New Zealand's economy is slowing, which means that Australia will eventually become a more attractive destination for migrants from an economic point of view.

“What's more, the inflow of foreign migrants is now running well above residence approval targets (90,000 - 100,000 over two years).

“But we expect many recent migrants on temporary visas will return home over the next couple of years.”

ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown also said the extremely high migration inflows showed no sign of moderating.

“Picking the timing of a change in current migration patterns is difficult. The local economy is cooling, but offshore labour markets and economic conditions remain mixed.

"We expect net migration to remain at or around the current level for at least the next quarter."

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