Migration inflow up – again

Low numbers of Kiwis moving overseas are contributing to the country’s record-breaking migration levels.

Monday, November 23rd 2015, 11:00AM

by Miriam Bell

New Zealand’s net gain of migrants in the year to October 2015 smashed yet another record to hit 62,477, according to Statistics New Zealand’s latest data.

This is up from last month’s net gain of 61,234 migrants.

The new record was due to a high of 120,100 migrant arrivals – which was up 12% from October 2014 – combined with 57,600 migrant departures – which was down 3% from October 2014.

Statistics New Zealand population statistics manager Vina Cullum said the annual net gain in migrants has been setting new records for the last 15 months.

Seasonally adjusted figures also showed a record net gain of 6,200 over October 2015.

This was up on the net gain of 5,600 migrants last month and was also higher than the previous peak of 5,700 migrants which was hit in July 2015.

Cullum said monthly net migration has been regularly breaking records since August 2014, when it surpassed the previous highest-ever net gain of 4,700 which was recorded in February 2003.

However, it is not just new arrivals that are driving the net migration gains.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said that underlying the strength in net immigration has been a very low level of departures by New Zealand citizens.

This was on top of the continued gains in the number of people moving to New Zealand, including returning New Zealand citizens.

“We expect that net immigration will remain strong for some time yet, but the current strength will eventually moderate.”

Ranchhod said there have been strong gains in the number of people arriving on student and temporary work visas and many of those arrivals will start to leave over the coming years.

“In addition, the New Zealand labour market has been softening, while Australia’s has been picking up. If this continues, and there are indications it will, New Zealand will start to look like less of an attractive destination. “

Ongoing low departures and strong arrivals will cause annual population growth to reach its highest pace since 1974, he said.

“While this is helping maintain a reasonable rate of GDP growth, the preponderance of people in the labour market is keeping wage growth lower than it would otherwise be.”

Further, the Statistics New Zealand data also shows that just over half of all migrants who stated an address on their arrival card were moving to the Auckland region.

This adds to the high demand for housing in the city and increases the existing pressure on the housing market.

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