Is the migration flow turning?

March saw an unexpected drop in migrant arrivals, which has left one economist asking if the record flow might be turning.

Thursday, April 21st 2016, 2:00PM

by Miriam Bell

New Statistics New Zealand data shows a seasonally adjusted monthly net gain of 5,300 migrants in March 2016.

This was down from the monthly net gain of 6,000 migrants seen in February.

It was also down on the average number of migrants per month over the last six months (5,900).

However, the country’s annual net gain of migrants still managed to hit a new high - for the 20th month in a row.

Statistics New Zealand population statistics manager Jo-Anne Skinner said there was an unadjusted net gain of 67,600 migrants in the March 2016 year.

“It was driven by migrant arrivals drove the new high, with 124,100 migrants arriving in the March 2016 year.

"One-quarter of these were New Zealand citizens returning.”

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the softening in monthly net migration was unexpected.

A pullback in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens was behind the softening, he said.

“There has been a sharp decline in arrivals of international students in recent months, and this looks to have continued this month.”

But the number of New Zealanders departing remains very low, while the numbers returning from offshore remain firm – which means overall net migration remains elevated, he said.

“Migration can be volatile on a month-to month basis, so we’re careful not to place too much weight on one month’s data.

“We will be keeping a close eye on next month’s figures to see if this is more than just normal monthly volatility.”

Ranchhod said strong population growth, due to net migration, has been a key contributor to spending growth and has boosted the economy’s productive capacity.

“This could be the first sign that things are starting to turn.”

New Zealand’s strong migration flows have been defying expectations and breaking records for months now.

While this boost to population growth has been of economic benefit, it has also been blamed for some of the pressure in the housing market, particularly in Auckland.

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