No end in sight for record migration

Migration set new records in November and the flow doesn’t look like stopping – which is more bad news for Auckland’s housing supply problem.

Wednesday, December 21st 2016, 12:00AM

by Miriam Bell

The annual net gain of migrants reached a new record of 70,400 in the November 2016 year, according to the latest Statistics New Zealand data.

This is a slight increase on the previous record of 70,300 set in October.

Statistics New Zealand population statistics manager Jo-Anne Skinner said the gain came from an increase in migrant arrivals (up 5%) combined with a decrease in departures (down 2%).

“People arriving on work visas made up a third of all arrivals.”

The seasonally adjusted monthly net gain of migrants also remains high at 6,200 in November.

This was slightly down from the record of 6,300 set in September, but is well up on the 5,700 which has been the average net gain for most of this year.

Westpac senior economist Anne Boniface said the monthly net migration again exceeded expectations in November.

While arrivals of migrants on student visas has slowed significantly over the course of 2016, arrivals of migrants on work visas continued to track higher in November, she said.

“Work visa arrivals (which have accounted for around a third of permanent and long term arrivals over the last year) have risen almost 20% since March.”

This means the decline in student arrivals has been swamped by a lift in arrivals of those on work visas.

Boniface said their view that net migration will gradually slow from its current record levels continues to be challenged by the monthly data.

“Ultimately, the key catalyst for weaker net migration inflows is likely to be softer labour market conditions in New Zealand relative to the rest of the world (and in particular Australia).

“However, with New Zealand’s growth prospects for 2017 remaining firm, a significant slowdown in the pace of net migration appears to be some way off yet.”

Given nearly half of the migrants who arrived in the November 2016 year said they were planning to live in Auckland, this means there is no end in sight to the demand pressures in the city’s housing market.

Auckland is already struggling with an estimated existing shortage of over 30,000 properties and the rate of new building is not considered to be at the pace required to address the problem.

This demand and supply imbalance means that many commentators are questioning how long the current slowdown in Auckland’s market will last.

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