Question marks around the recovery
J P Morgan Weekly Prospects says business confidence may have jumped to its highest level since April 1999, but it maintains that the Reserve Bank will delay tightening policy until July.
It says half of the business confidence respondents expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, although there is a deteriorating medium-term inflation outlook which reaffirms J P Morgan's view that the Reserve Bank will lift the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.5% currently to 4% by year-end.
ANZ Market Focus says trends in credit growth do not suggest a normal cyclical recovery is in prospect, with other question marks continuing to surround the pace of the recovery.
"Weak credit growth, pressure on sovereigns to de-leverage, structural changes and mixed data imply a bumpy ride ahead."
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