To hike, or not to hike?
As a result BNZ, ASB, Westpac and ANZ all expect the Reserve Bank to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Thursday. J P Morgan however, believes the first hike will be in July.
BNZ Markets Outlook says since April domestic news, on balance, has been stronger than Reserve Bank expectations.
It says in particular the labour market isn't as slack as anticipated (a sharp drop in Q1 unemployment from 7.1% to 6%), commodity prices are higher than expected and world prices for New Zealand export commodities are, on average, around 10% higher than the Reserve Bank had factored into its forecasts. The Reserve Bank also knows the details of the 2010 Budget.
ASB Business Weekly says the Reserve Bank will also want to act soon to start keeping inflation pressures in check. Two year ahead inflation expectations have continued to edge towards the top of the Reserve Bank's target band of 3%.
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