2010 worse for NZ defaults than 2009: S&P

Two defaults in the first three months of this year by New Zealand issuers have already doubled the number of missed payments in 2009, according to Standard & Poor’s.

Tuesday, April 20th 2010, 6:01AM 1 Comment

by Paul McBeth

Defaults by Australasian issuers remained stable last year, with only one missed payment by a confidentially rated company, carrying on the trend of a single default since 2006. That's 0.5% of the 434 issuers S&P rates across Australia and New Zealand. Still, this will not continue in 2010, with two short-term defaults by issuers not rated earlier in the year being reported already.

"It should be noted that the performance for 2009 should not create expectations for a continuation in 2010 of the pattern seen over the past four years," said S&P credit analyst Terry Chan. "The lag effect from New Zealand's downturn has seen two defaults in the first quarter 2010 of small financial institutions, a factor that automatically will break the pattern and which will be captured in our review of 2010."

There was a surge of companies applying for credit ratings earlier this year as Reserve Bank regulations approach, requiring non-bank deposit takers holding assets of more than $20 million to have a credit rating from S&P, Fitch Ratings, or Moody's Investor Services.

New Zealand and Australia fared well on a global comparison, with a record-high 264 defaults, or 3.99%, last year.

"We conclude that the low default performance for the Australia and New Zealand issuer pool results from the relatively muted impact of the global financial crisis on Australia," Chan said. "The largely investment-grade pool seen in Australia and New Zealand lends itself to a lower average likelihood of default."

When the credit crunch hit at the end of 2008, there was a rush from large corporates to tap retail bond markets as a way to shore up their balance sheets, and some $3.35 billion was raised on the NZDX last year.

Paul is a staff writer for Good Returns based in Wellington.

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