Migrant inflows soft again in May
The recent softening of net permanent and long-term migrant inflows continued in May, the latest Deutsche Bank research reveals.
Thursday, June 21st 2007, 12:00AM
by The Landlord
The net inflow in May was just 360 persons (seasonally adjusted). To date, the average inflow in 2007 is just 420 per month or around 5000 per year, well below the 13,000 annual inflow assumed by the Reserve Bank in its June Monetary Policy Statement.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs says this is good news for the Reserve Bank given the link between migrant inflows and the housing market.
Over the past three months gross inflows are little changed from a year earlier. However, gross outflows have increased 13.4% year-on-year over the same period.
Statistics New Zealand data shows that in the year to May just over a net 27,500 New Zealanders left the country on a permanent and long-term basis, the biggest outflow in a May year since 2001.
Just over a net 38,000 non-New Zealand citizens moved here over the same period, accounting for the net overall migrant inflow of around 10,500 (about 0.25% of the current population).
Gibbs says it is worth noting that total net arrivals continue to run at a stronger rate, with annual net inflow of just over 17,000 recorded in the three months to May. “To some extent this could reflect category hopping, i.e. people who arrive with short-term stay intentions but upon the finding of a job, apply for residency while in New Zealand.”
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