Rates down, down, down - market up?
Thursday, December 4th 2008, 3:34PM 
2 Comments
A massive cut in interest rates is bound to spark the languid property market into life, even though we are moving into the silly season, aka Christmas.
The Reserve Bank, today, cut its official cash rate (OCR) 150 basis points bringing it down to 5.0%, a number we haven’t seen for a long time and one which six months ago we could only dream of.
During the day a number of organisations have cut their lending rates, but few have passed on the full 150 points – yet. The biggest mover is SBS which has taken its floating rate to a market low of 7.20%.
What is worth noting though is short-term rates, including the floating rate, are for many lenders at four-year lows.
These big cuts over the past few months are changing the numbers of investment properties. This means it is getting easier to make them cash flow positive, or at least get pretty close to a neutral situation.
I don’t think that buyers will automatically change their approach to buying. Not if the auction I went to today is any indication. There the most, actually only action, was a mortgagee sale, where quite a few bidders became involved. It was clear their intention was to pick up the property for a song.
What it indicated was that investors are looking, but not getting carried away with prices.
The cut in finance costs may allow them to up their prices a bit more or be less cautious in their approach.
The other event which may change sentiment in the market is the government’s guarantee on deposits. This may help, as surviving finance companies are now getting money rolling in the door and that is helping their liquidity, but also allowing them to resume making loans again.
While most of this lending will be in the commercial and development markets, it may just be enough to help get the market moving again.
If it does start moving it is likely to be slow, rather than a quick, accelerated pick-up.
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On 6 January 2009 at 10:16 pm Dave said:
There was some comment from hopeful investors/landlords in a recent NZ Herald articlebased on interest rate relief and rent rises may allow property to reach 'positive' cash flow.
I believe the negatives to this argumentare demographic such as negative migration flows.
Thus while landlords may wish to push rents, there will also be those who will lower rents as interest rates allow, plus the mortgagee sales etc.
One determining factor that transcends all others is the long term affordability of home ownership. Deposit hurdles are a temporary thing and will reduce family upgrades and then ultimately the 'baby boomer' generation who will wish to release equity are also at the whim of major demographics as they will need a willing and liquid buyer.
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Given that consumers hold plenty of debt especially housing debt, fearful of layoffs, and waiting for housing prices to hit bottom, it's unlikely that they'll react to this interest rate cut with a spending spree.