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MR - Experts Views

Economists debate meaty chunks comment

Tuesday 2nd of February 2010

ANZ Market Focus says "meaty chunks" implies that there will be larger 50 basis point rate hikes early on and alongside BNZ it is picking an OCR hike in June.

Westpac, JP Morgan and ASB however still expect a 25 basis point hike in April.

ANZ Market Focus believes June will be the time for a hike because there are "two preconditions that need to be met before the Reserve Bank starts lifting the OCR"- stabilisation in the labour market with March quarter labour market data not out until May and a pick up in credit growth.

"If credit growth picks up, remove liquidity. If not, maintain the status quo. The credit numbers so far very much call for the status quo."

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