Auckland price rebound may be temporary

With the arrival of Spring came a rebound in Auckland house prices, the latest Barfoot & Thompson data shows – but it's unclear whether it will continue.

Tuesday, October 6th 2015, 11:43AM

by Miriam Bell

Auckland’s average sales price increased by 1.9% in September, which left it at a record $836,275, according to the agency’s data.

In August, the average sale price was $821,079, while in September 2014 it was $738,876.

The agency’s data also recorded an increase in Auckland’s median sales price. It went up by 4.6%, which left it at a record $790,000.

In August, the median sale price was $755,000, while in September 2014 it was $635,000.

Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said it was necessary to go back to June to see a similar lift in values in one month to that experienced in September.

“The price surge may partly be down to buyers getting in ahead of the new regulations around equity ratios for investors, which came into force in October. But an element of the traditional lift that comes with spring was there.”

However, Thompson was doubtful whether September’s rebound was the start of a rising trend.

While sales activity was healthy in September, there was a noticeable fall-off in sales over the last week.

Thompson said this could be due to a combination of school holidays and a tightening of requirements around the export of money out of China.

The restricted flow of money out of China was likely to slow down sections of Auckland’s housing market until early next year, he said.

Further, uncertainty around new tax and LVR measures would also slow buyer activity down for a few months.

Some of September’s price rebound was probably due to a rush before the new measures came in, Thompson said.

“I suspect the average sales price will come back down again next month, due to the jump in September.”

In the past, Thompson has said the Auckland market was starting to slow and he still believes this to be the case.

“Over the last four months, the average sales price has moved very little. That is a good indication that prices have settled.”

He also noted that, at the end of September, the number of properties on the agency’s books was 3148, which was the highest number in five months.

This, and the recent fall-off in sales, should sound a note of caution for sellers, Thompson continued.

“September’s prices may not prove to be the start of a new round of increases, and buyer’s may not be prepared to overstretch themselves to secure a property.

“The future direction of prices remains at the crossroads.”

Meanwhile, the latest BNZ Confidence Survey, which is also out today, seems to support Thompson’s view.

The summary of results showed that, in Auckland, there have been far fewer people at open homes, auction clearance rates are down, and fewer Asian buyers are in evidence.

They also hinted that the willingness of property investors to buy was easing off for now.

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“Halo” effect drives prices to record highs »

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