Rise in prices, sales as LVR effect dims

The impact of the new LVRs is wearing off as the latest REINZ data shows a lift in median prices and sales volumes around most of the country.

Monday, December 12th 2016, 12:00AM

by Miriam Bell

The national median house price grew by 13.2% year-on-year to hit a record high of $520,000 in November, as compared to $510,000 in October.

Once seasonally adjusted, the national median price was down 0.2% on October, but up by 13% year-on-year.

Median prices in 10 regions around New Zealand also soared to new records in November – with only the Auckland and Central Otago Lakes regions bucking the trend.

Auckland’s median price of $ $851,944 was down by 2% on October’ record of $868,000, but still up by 11.4% year-on-year.

Once seasonally adjusted, Auckland’s median price was down 4% on October, but up 11% year-on-year.

REINZ spokesperson Bryan Thomson said Auckland prices had eased back in November after hitting a record high in October.

“However, the underlying trend of Auckland prices remains steadily upward, rising by $269,944 at a compound annual growth rate of 13.2% since the introduction of the first set of LVR rules in October 2013.

“Over the past year, the median house price in Auckland has risen by $86,944.”

While November’s sales volume in Auckland was up 12% on October, once seasonally adjusted sales fell by 3% month-on-month.

This indicates that the drop in sales from October was larger than normal.

The sales volumes rate of decline is slowing, but both first home buyers and investors are staying away from the Auckland market with numbers down 50% in some parts of the region, he said.

“As a result, inventory levels are continuing to climb. Despite this softening in demand and rising inventory, the number of sales by auction continues to hold above 40% across the region."

Around the rest of the country, sales volumes grew during November, with sales of 7,576, which was an increase of 13% on October.

Once seasonally adjusted, national sales volumes by under 1% as compared to October and by 6% year-on-year.

Thomson said the data showed that, nationally, sales volumes and prices recovered in November - despite the impact of November’s Kaikoura earthquake.

“For the first time, our map has been dark blue across the entire country, depicting strong year-on- year price growth or record prices in every region, and double-digit growth across the entire North Island.

Along with Auckland, Wellington sales volumes declined by 1% on October, although the region’s median price hit $500,000 for the first time.

Thomson said that, nationally, the decline in the number of properties for sale year-on- year continues, but the rate of decline is easing as Spring has progressed.

Westpac acting chief economist Michael Gordon said the data shows that the housing market is steadying after the impact of the latest LVR restrictions.

Sales were close to flat in seasonally adjusted terms, while the stratified price index recorded a solid 0.9% gain for the month, he said.

“These results are in line with what our ‘investment value’ analytical framework suggests about the impact of lending restrictions.

“They limit who can buy a house, leading to lower turnover – sales are down about 16% since their peak in April this year.

“But they have little bearing on bidders’ willingness to pay, which is determined by factors such as mortgage rates, rental yields and the tax treatment of property.”

Mortgage rates have been creeping higher since November, ending a fairly steady downward trend over the past couple of years, Gordon added.

“This turnaround in borrowing costs could have a more meaningful impact on house prices than the LVR restrictions.”

ASB economist Kim Mundy said the data shows sales activity is recovering across many areas of New Zealand in November – although it remains weak in Auckland and Wellington.

“The latest round of investor-focused LVRs has dampened the property market to a degree. We expect to see activity remain subdued over the rest of the year.”

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